The Civic Coalition (KO), led by Prime Minister Donald Tusk, continues to be the largest political entity in Poland, yet recent polling data indicates potential challenges in securing a parliamentary majority if elections were to take place now. With KO garnering 27.3% of voter support, a slight decline from their previous 28.7%, the coalition is facing a narrowing path to maintain its leading position.
Meanwhile, the opposition party Law and Justice (PiS) has seen a boost, climbing 2.8 percentage points to achieve 20.6% support. Additionally, the Confederation party has experienced a rise in popularity, now holding 14.1% of the vote. Other political groups such as the Confederation of the Polish Crown, the Left, and Development Plus recorded support levels of 8.4%, 7.1%, and 6.5% respectively. Parties like Poland 2050 and the Polish People’s Party (PSL), which are aligned with the current government, have fallen below the electoral threshold.
In terms of seat projections, the data suggests that a coalition between KO and the Left would secure approximately 198 seats, falling 33 seats short of the 231 required for a majority. On the other hand, a potential coalition involving PiS, Confederation, and Development Plus would also be insufficient, totaling 224 seats. However, integrating the Confederation of the Polish Crown into this right-wing bloc could potentially elevate their seat count to an estimated 262, surpassing the majority threshold.
It’s important to note that this survey was conducted prior to recent developments involving Radosław Piesiewicz, the president of the Polish Olympic Committee, and the controversy surrounding his possession of an expensive Patek Philippe watch. As such, any political ramifications stemming from this situation are not accounted for in the current poll results.