$100 Oil Returns as Middle East War Disrupts Global Energy Supply

Oil prices reclaimed the $100-a-barrel level Thursday as the widening war in the Middle East threatened to choke off a significant portion of the world’s energy supply. Iran’s military launched strikes on oil ports, merchant ships, and fuel facilities across the region, deepening fears of a sustained supply crunch. Global stock markets fell sharply in response.
The conflict, which began on February 28, has effectively sealed the Strait of Hormuz — a chokepoint through which about 20% of globally traded oil and gas normally flows. Iraq halted operations at all its oil export ports after two tankers were struck in nearby waters. Oman evacuated vessels from its Mina Al Fahal export terminal after drone attacks targeted a neighboring port.
Iran’s military spokesperson openly warned that oil could reach $200 a barrel, stating that regional security — which Tehran accused the United States of destabilizing — directly determines the energy price. Brent crude hit a peak of $119 a barrel earlier in the week before pulling back. On Thursday, it traded around $98 after briefly topping $100.
The IEA’s emergency release of 400 million barrels from member nation reserves represented the largest such action in the agency’s history. President Trump vowed to press ahead with the campaign against Iran and announced plans to release 172 million barrels from America’s Strategic Petroleum Reserve. He claimed the move would substantially reduce oil prices as the threat to global stability is addressed.
Goldman Sachs adjusted its Brent forecast for the fourth quarter of 2026 upward to $71 a barrel. European natural gas prices rose 7.7% for a second consecutive day. Analysts at Deutsche Bank noted that without concrete signs of de-escalation, stagflation risks for the global economy are growing more serious by the hour.